Thursday, October 7, 2010

Intentional Walks. Why?

I don't understand intentional walks. I don't understand anything about them. When you intentionally walk somebody, you are literally saying, "We could try and get you out, but there is also a risk of you getting a hit, and we would rather not take that risk, and voluntarily put you on base at no cost." Okay.

I don't get when a runner is on second, the announcers start talking about how "First base is open". Well, first base is open when a runner is on first as well. If you walk the next batter, you end up with the lead runner on second, and a man on first. Same situation as when "First base was open" after your intentional walk.

Yeah, you get the whole "play at any base" thing, but does that offset putting another runner on base without even trying to pitch to him?

Two outs, Buster Posey was on 2nd, "first base was open", and Pablo Sandoval was up. They intentionally walk Pablo, to get to Cody Ross, who was batting .406 over his last 10 games. If you haven't heard, Pablo has been referred to as a "free swinger" by some pundits. If you're planning on just GIVING him a base, why not give him four crappy pitches. A couple away, one chest high, one in the dirt. If he somehow doesn't swing, he gets the same walk he would've been given anyway. If he starts swinging, odds are fairly high that he makes bad contact on a bad pitch and hits a bad ball to somebody's glove. Worst case scenario is that he gets a hit and Posey scores. Best case scenario is that you get him out and end the inning.

But the Braves didn't want to take that tiny risk of a hit, and instead put him on base with no fuss whatsoever. And Cody Ross came up and got a hit, Posey scored. That was the only run the Giants needed. After that, Tim Lincecum struck out.

If the Braves were using the intentional walk to get into a more favorable position (play at every base!) then why not go ahead and walk Cody Ross, too! Go for broke! There will be a force at EVERY base, and the worst hitter on the team in Lincecum would be up. Now they'd have two outs, a play at EVERY base, and a man with a .143 OBP up at the plate. 85.7% chance of getting the batter out on his own, and you have a play at EVERY base.

So why bother putting a man on base for free, if it only puts you into an even worse position? Why would you want to not take a risk...and because of that put yourself in a riskier situation.

Absolutely horrible managing, horrible decision, and a decision that ended up costing them the game.

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